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变电修试融合作业安全管理控制模型研究

Research on the Safety Management and Control Model for Integrated Substation Maintenance and Testing Operations

  • 摘要: 文章对变电修试融合作业安全风险开展深入分析,得到变电修试融合作业安全风险因素清单。绘制风险存量流量图,编写变量方程式,实现从静态到动态的转变,并对变电修试融合作业安全风险系统动力学模型进行整体性评估。从作业周期阶段性控制的角度,提出风险管控措施,并将其量化纳入变电修试融合作业安全风险控制模型中,总结出“曲折型”“平稳型”和“山峰型”3种风险控制模型。3种模型均在一定程度上减缓了系统风险的增长,其中“山峰型”最贴近实际情况,控制效果最佳。从作业全过程管控角度出发,针对全过程管控的8个重要环节提出管控措施建议。

     

    Abstract: This paper conducts an in-depth analysis of safety risks in integrated substation maintenance and testing operations and obtains a list of safety risk factors. It then develops a risk stock and flow diagram, formulates variable equations, and performs a holistic evaluation of the system dynamics model for safety risks in integrated substation maintenance and testing operations from both static and dynamic perspectives. From the perspective of phased control over the operation cycle, risk control measures are proposed and quantified in the safety risk control model. Three risk control models are summarized, namely the zigzag type, stable type, and peak type. All three models mitigate the growth of system risk to some extent, among which the peak type is closest to actual conditions and achieves the best control effect. From the perspective of full-process operation control, control measures are proposed for eight key links in the whole process, providing a reference for personnel and enterprises engaged in the safety management of integrated substation maintenance and testing operations.

     

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