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极端气温事件对长春市电力负荷的影响研究

Study on the Impact of Extreme Temperature Events on Power Load in Changchun

  • 摘要: 本研究以副热带高压影响下的长春地区为对象,基于2025年夏季高温时段电力负荷与气温、湿度、风速、体感温度、比湿等气象要素的关系。结果表明:2025年7月4—12日,长春受副高影响出现历史同期极端高温,平均气温较常年偏高4.1 ℃,为历史同期偏高第一;极端最高气温居1951年以来同期第三,高温强度和持续性达极端标准。气温呈极强正相关(R = 0.9),体感温度呈较强正相关(R = 0.7),相对湿度呈中等负相关(R = −0.5),风速和比湿弱呈正相关(R = 0.3),各气象要素与用电负荷相关性差异显著。气温31 ℃且体感温度42 ℃时,可作为高负荷监测指标;气温超33 ℃且体感温度超46 ℃时,可作为启动应急调度指标。该指标能为同类天气电力预测提供参考。

     

    Abstract: This study focuses on the Changchun area under the influence of the subtropical high and analyzes the relationships between power load and meteorological factors during the high-temperature period in the summer of 2025, including air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, apparent temperature, and specific humidity. The results show that from July 4 to 12, 2025, Changchun experiences a historically extreme high-temperature event under the influence of the subtropical high. The average temperature is 4.1 °C higher than the climatological normal, ranking first among historical anomalies for the same period. The extreme maximum temperature ranks third for the same period since 1951, and the intensity and duration of the high-temperature event reach the extreme level. Air temperature shows a very strong positive correlation with power load, with R = 0.9. Apparent temperature shows a strong positive correlation, with R = 0.7. Relative humidity shows a moderate negative correlation, with R = −0.5. Wind speed and specific humidity show weak positive correlations, with R = 0.3. These results indicate significant differences in the correlations between different meteorological factors and power load. An air temperature of 31 °C and an apparent temperature of 42 °C can be used as high-load monitoring indicators. When the air temperature exceeds 33 °C and the apparent temperature exceeds 46 °C, these conditions can be used as indicators for initiating emergency dispatch. The proposed indicators provide a reference for power load forecasting under similar weather conditions.

     

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