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基于多元回归与分层抽样的电网应急调遣及协调成本测算模型研究

Research on a Calculation Model for Power Grid Emergency Dispatch and Coordination Cost Based on Multiple Regression and Stratified Sampling

  • 摘要: 电网应急抢修是保障电网安全稳定运行的关键环节,人员调遣及协调费是应急抢修措施费用中的重要组成部分,亟须建立科学合理的测算标准以实现精准成本控制。文章基于海南台风抢修案例,构建了多元回归与分层抽样的费用测算模型。模型考虑调遣距离、规模、待命时间等因素,通过分层抽样采集历史数据,并运用多元回归分析费用影响因素。实证研究表明,模型拟合优度高(调整后R2达到0.85),且敏感性分析验证了模型的鲁棒性。该研究成果可为电网公司提供科学、透明的费用测算工具,减少结算纠纷,提升费用合规性。同时,标准化、可复制的测算机制有助于提高施工单位响应抢修的积极性与及时性,助力电网企业实现应急抢修成本的有效控制与优化。

     

    Abstract: Emergency repair is a critical component for ensuring the safe and stable operation of the power grid. Personnel dispatch and coordination costs represent a significant portion of emergency repair expenses, necessitating the establishment of scientifically sound estimation standards to achieve precise cost control. Based on typhoon repair cases in Hainan, this paper constructs a cost estimation model integrating multiple regression analysis and stratified sampling. The model quantifies key variables such as dispatch distance, mobilization scale, and standby duration. Historical data were collected via stratified sampling to analyze cost drivers through multiple regression. Empirical results indicate a high goodness-of-fit (adjustedR2 reaching 0.85), while sensitivity analysis confirms the model's robustness. This research provides power grid companies with a transparent cost-estimation tool, reducing settlement disputes and enhancing compliance. Furthermore, the standardized mechanism incentivizes construction units to respond more promptly, aiding power grid enterprises in optimizing emergency repair cost management.

     

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