Abstract: This study focuses on the matching relationship between new energy installed capacity and accommodation capacity, and adopts the constraint setting method, the peak regulation and accommodation balance method, and scenario classification and sensitivity analysis. It is suggested that system calculations should be conducted in combination with boundary verification, comprehensively considering consumption and balance. The moderate scenario ratio of 7:3 should be prioritized for locking, and the guaranteed grid connection scale of 15 GW should remain unchanged. In the short term, 10% to 15% of installed capacity margin can be released by optimizing energy storage operation strategies and thermal power peak regulation curves. In the medium term, energy storage construction, flexibility upgrades of thermal power units, and expansion of outgoing transmission channels should be promoted to gradually expand toward the upper limit. In the long term, pumped storage and demand side response resources should be added to adapt to load growth and the expansion demand for new energy installed capacity.