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配电网多时间尺度下台-线-变多层级风险评估方法

A Multi-Time Scale Risk Assessment Method for Substation-Feeder-Transformer Multi-Level in Distribution Networks

  • 摘要: 为应对高比例新能源接入下配电网运行风险复杂化的挑战,文章提出了一种面向“台区-线路-变电站”多层级的配电网风险评估方法。首先,构建了涵盖多时间尺度的多维度风险评价指标体系;其次,引入融合熵权法与层次分析法的组合赋权模型,综合主客观信息以科学确定指标权重;在此基础上,提出了系统化的多层级风险评估流程与定量计算方法。最后,通过实际算例分析验证了所提方法的有效性。结果表明,该方法能精准识别不同层级的风险薄弱环节,评估结果更为全面、合理,可为配电网的分层分级精准防控与运维决策提供定量依据。

     

    Abstract: To address the increasingly complex operational risk challenges faced by distribution networks with high-penetration renewable energy integration, this paper proposes a multi-hierarchy risk assessment method for distribution networks covering the transformer district-feeder-substation levels. Firstly, a multi-dimensional risk evaluation index system incorporating multi-time scales is established. Secondly, a combined weighting model integrating the entropy weight method and analytic hierarchy process is introduced to comprehensively consider subjective and objective information and scientifically determine the index weights. On this basis, a systematic multi-hierarchy risk assessment process and quantitative calculation method are put forward. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified through practical case studies. The results show that this method can accurately identify risk weak points at different levels, and the assessment results are more comprehensive and reasonable, which can provide a quantitative basis for the hierarchical and targeted risk prevention, control, and operation and maintenance decision-making of distribution networks.

     

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