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配电网多时间尺度下“台—线—变”多层级风险评估方法

A Multi-Time Scale and Multi-Level Risk Assessment Method for Distribution Networks Considering the "Substation-Feeder-Transformer" Hierarchy

  • 摘要: 为应对高比例新能源接入下配电网运行风险复杂化的挑战,文章提出了一种面向“台—线—变”多层级的配电网风险评估方法。首先,构建了涵盖多时间尺度的多维度风险评价指标体系;其次,引入融合熵权法与层次分析法的组合赋权模型,综合主客观信息以科学确定指标权重;在此基础上,提出了系统化的多层级风险评估流程与定量计算方法。最后,通过实际算例分析验证了所提方法的有效性。结果表明,该方法能精准识别不同层级的风险薄弱环节,评估结果更为全面、合理,可为配电网的分层分级精准防控与运维决策提供定量依据。

     

    Abstract: To address the increasing complexity of operational risks in distribution networks characterized by high renewable energy penetration, this paper proposes a multi-level risk assessment method targeting the "distribution transformer district-feeder-substation" hierarchy. Firstly, a multi-dimensional risk evaluation index system incorporating multiple time scales is constructed. Secondly, a combined weighting model fusing the entropy weight method and the Analytic Hierarchy Process is introduced to integrate subjective and objective information, thereby determining index weights scientifically. On this basis, a systematic multi-level risk assessment procedure and a quantitative calculation method are proposed. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified through case study analysis. The results indicate that the method can accurately identify weak links at different levels, yielding more comprehensive and rational assessment results. It provides a quantitative basis for hierarchical precise prevention and control, as well as operation and maintenance decision-making for distribution networks.

     

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