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基于数据驱动鲁棒优化的光伏-储能-电热膜多能协同零碳供暖优化方法

A Data-Driven Robust Optimization Method for Multi-Energy Synergistic Zero-Carbon Heating with PV Storage Electric Heating Film Systems

  • 摘要: 文章提出一种基于数据驱动鲁棒优化的光伏、储能与电热膜协同零碳供暖方法。首先,基于历史运行数据构建数据驱动功率云模型,刻画光储能系统输出功率的不确定性特征;在此基础上,结合凸包拟合方法对功率云模型进行改进,生成鲁棒不确定性集合边界,为鲁棒优化决策提供明确的范围约束;其次,采用耦合协调度分析方法明确光伏发电、储能与电热膜供暖之间的多能互补协调特性;然后,将耦合协调度分析结果与鲁棒不确定性集合边界约束相结合,构建数据驱动的鲁棒优化模型,并改进列与约束生成算法(C&CG)进行高效求解,从而实现系统多能互补运行的稳健决策和优化管理。最后,仿真分析结果验证了所提方法的准确性与有效性。

     

    Abstract: This paper proposes a data-driven robust optimization method for zero-carbon heating through synergy among photovoltaic (PV), energy storage, and electric heating film systems. First, a data-driven power cloud model is constructed based on historical operational data to characterize the uncertainty of PV-storage system output power. The model is then refined via convex hull fitting to generate robust uncertainty set boundaries, providing explicit constraints for robust optimization decisions. Second, a coupling coordination degree analysis is adopted to quantify the multi-energy complementary characteristics among PV generation, energy storage, and electric heating film heating. Subsequently, the coupling coordination analysis results are integrated with the robust uncertainty set constraints to establish a data-driven robust optimization model, which is efficiently solved using an improved column-and-constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm to achieve robust decision-making and optimal management of multi-energy synergistic operation. Finally, simulation results verify the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed method.

     

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