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风电项目资本金财务内部收益率动态量化模型构建及工程验证

Construction and Engineering Validation of a Dynamic Quantitative Model for Equity IRR in Wind Power Projects

  • 摘要: 为解决风电项目资本金财务内部收益率传统测算方法效率低、参数多且动态响应能力不足等问题,提出一种敏感性驱动的动态量化模型。基于某发电集团65个陆上风电项目(2023—2025年)的经济评价数据,通过偏相关分析识别出装机容量、投资、长贷利率等7个关键因子,构建多元线性回归模型。模型拟合优度(调整后R2 = 0.809)与残差检验(1.559)验证其可靠性,10个测试项目的Equity IRR测算值与专业软件结果平均绝对误差仅为-0.25%,满足项目前期快速决策需求。

     

    Abstract: To overcome the limitations of traditional methods for estimating the equity internal rate of return (IRR) in wind power projects—such as low computational efficiency, parameter redundancy, and limited dynamic responsiveness—this study proposes a sensitivity-driven dynamic quantitative model. Based on economic evaluation data from 65 onshore wind power projects (2023–2025) developed by a major power generation group, seven key influencing factors—including installed capacity, total investment, and long-term loan interest rate—were identified through partial correlation analysis. A multiple linear regression model was then constructed, demonstrating strong reliability with an adjusted R² of 0.809 and a residual standard error of 1.559. Validation with 10 independent test projects showed that the model’s predicted equity IRR values achieved a mean absolute deviation of only 0.25% compared with results from professional financial software. The proposed model effectively supports rapid and data-driven investment decision-making during the early planning stages of wind power projects.

     

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