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基于LightGBM-XGBoost融合模型的风电场中短期功率预测方法

Hybrid LightGBM-XGBoost Model for Medium and Short Term Wind Farm Power Forecasting

  • 摘要: 为提高风电场功率预测精度,解决传统方法对复杂时空特征及风机工况差异建模不足的问题,文章提出了一种基于分组策略的双模型融合预测方法。首先,采用随机森林算法对原始数据进行清洗,并基于场站周边气象站点及风机经纬度信息构建气象数据空间模型;其次,引入多种时空特征以增强输入数据的表征能力;在此基础上,针对风机工况差异进行分组,分别采用LightGBM和XGBoost模型进行训练,并采用误差加权的方式进行模型融合。实验结果表明,所提方法相比传统单一模型预测精度显著提升,验证了其有效性和实用性。本研究通过多模态数据协同建模与分组融合机制,为高精度风电预测提供了可推广的技术路径。

     

    Abstract: To improve the accuracy of wind farm power forecasting and address the limitations of traditional methods in modeling complex spatiotemporal features and turbine operating condition variations, this paper proposes a dual-model fusion forecasting method based on a grouping strategy. First, the Random Forest algorithm is employed to preprocess the raw data, and a spatial meteorological model is constructed using data from surrounding weather stations and turbine location coordinates. Second, diverse spatiotemporal features are incorporated to enhance the input data representation. The turbines are then clustered according to their operating condition differences, with each group trained separately using LightGBM and XGBoost models, followed by an error-weighted fusion strategy. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves significantly higher accuracy compared to conventional single-model approaches, validating its effectiveness and practicality. Through multi-source data integration and a grouped fusion mechanism, this study provides a generalizable framework for high-precision wind power forecasting.

     

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